Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.