Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Fall 37% In President Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The mean figure of daily homicides monthly in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent administrative data. But, security analysts have warned that homicide numbers may not point to better countrywide security.

Marked Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September of last year. This data was shared by the head of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we have seen over these past months is remarkably important,” the President said, explaining that last month the least number of murders were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Fierce organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s highly militarised campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an apparently sharper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key elements of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Increased cooperation between various authorities.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

However, security analysts warned that using murder data to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true considering the increase in different crimes such as abductions.

“This would be excellent news if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

As reported by the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the context of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was similarly concerning because it could hide periods when there were especially spiking numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day mean renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for major offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

However in spite of these actions, Mexico remains grappling with high bloodshed, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to show their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to construct a narrative of safety. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas concluded.