Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
